The Significance of the Black Vote in Presidential Elections

This paper provides a description of the significant role that the Black vote has played in presidential elections. Understanding this historical role is necessary to arrive at in-depth analyses of what happened with voter turnout in 2016. We compare our turnout projections in several key states made prior to the election to the actual turnout, and point out both the strengths and weaknesses of the turnout projection model used. Some suggestions for further research on modeling turnout patterns and thereby targeting resources are given. Additionally, given the unique background of Blacks in American politics, we examine problems with describing Black political power exclusively in terms of electoral politics. Some possible strategies and solutions for advancing collective political interests are discussed in the conclusion.